Iran, Trump, and Tariffs.

Good afternoon, 

It seems the tariff updates will continue in 2026 as well, as Trump fights his Supreme Court over trade dominance. Former Prince Andrew was arrested due to his ties with Epstein, and the Iran situation remains tense. Locally, the social media firewall was finally shut down after it failed to deliver results.

Grab your chaye, let’s go.

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🌍 What in the World

🇮🇷 US President Donald Trump says the world will find out over the next 10 days whether the US will reach a deal with Iran about its nuclear programme or take military action.  In recent days, the US has surged military forces to the Middle East, while progress has been reported in talks between American and Iranian negotiators.

The Iranian government has told the UN Secretary-General that it will regard US bases in the region as legitimate targets if used in any military aggression against Iran. Democratic lawmakers and some Republicans have also voiced opposition to any potential military action in Iran without congressional approval. Track the rapid US military build-up near Iran, here.

🇱🇧 Israeli attacks killed at least 12 people in eastern and southern Lebanon on Friday, in the latest breach of a 2024 ceasefire deal with the armed group, Hezbollah. Israel’s army said it hit Hezbollah command centres in the Baalbek area of Bekaa. Hezbollah confirmed that at least eight of its members had been killed, including a senior field commander.

🇬🇧 The UK government is considering introducing legislation to remove Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor from the line of royal succession over his ties to paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein. On Thursday evening, Andrew was arrested for 11 hours on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He has consistently and strenuously denied any wrongdoing. Currently, Andrew, the King's brother, remains eighth in line to the throne despite being stripped of his titles, including "prince."

🇰🇷South Korea's ex-president Yoon Suk Yeol has been jailed for life for masterminding an insurrection by trying to impose military rule. A Seoul court ruled that Yoon attempted to subvert the constitution by deploying military troops to seal off the National Assembly and ordering the arrest of politicians on 3 December 2024. 

🫸 US President Donald Trump has imposed a new 10% global tariff to replace those struck down by the Supreme Court, calling the ruling "terrible" and lambasting the justices who rejected his trade policy as "fools". The president unveiled the plan shortly after the justices outlawed most of the global tariffs the White House announced last year. In a 6-3 decision, the court held that the president had overstepped his powers. Full tea, here.

🇮🇳 Tech giants committed to funneling hundreds of billions of dollars into Indian AI efforts, against the backdrop of the India AI Impact Summit this week. Hyperscalers such as Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet announced capital expenditure that could hit $700 billion on AI this year. Indian tech group Reliance also reportedly announced plans to invest $110 billion into data centers and other infrastructure, and compatriot Adani is outlining a $100 billion AI data center buildout over the next decade.

The summit was also marked by controversy as Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates withdrew from the event amid public backlash for his past relationship with deceased financier and sex predator Jeffrey Epstein. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei visibly declined to hold hands during a group photo. An Indian university was also criticized after claiming it had invented a commercially available Chinese-made robot dog.

🇵🇰 Home ground

🪖 The armed forces struck seven terrorist camps along the Pak-Afghan border earlier today, in direct response to the recent suicide attacks in Islamabad, Bajaur, and Bannu. The government says it has solid evidence that TTP (Fitna al Khwarij) and the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) militants were operating from Afghan soil and carrying out attacks in Pakistan during Ramzan. Islamabad says it repeatedly told the Afghan Taliban to take action and won’t compromise on citizens’ security.

➗ The Sindh Assembly on Saturday passed a resolution declaring Karachi an “inseparable part” of the province and opposing any move that suggested otherwise. The resolution, tabled by CM Murad and passed with a majority, stated that the House “unequivocally condemns and rejects any conspiracy aimed at the division of Sindh or the creation of a separate province comprising Karachi”.

The chief minister’s move comes after the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) has repeatedly called for the Centre’s intervention in Karachi, demanding that the metropolis be made a federal territory.

🧱 Ahead of the much-anticipated 5G spectrum auction, the government has permanently shut down the controversial system that was installed in 2024 to monitor and control social media. Officials say the project failed to deliver desired results and caused billions of rupees in losses to the national exchequer. The decision marks a major policy shift as Pakistan prepares to attract investment in its telecom and IT sectors.

🤑 Pakistan has moved forward with a $1.12 billion coal-to-fertilizer project in the desert region of Thar, aiming to use domestic coal to produce urea and reduce reliance on imported fertilizer and on costly natural gas. The initiative is part of a broader push to tap the vast coal reserves in Tharparkar district, which is home to one of the world’s largest untapped lignite coal deposits.

🤖 IT exports maintained steady double-digit growth in Pakistan, rising to $2.61 billion during July–January FY2025–26, showing a 19% year-on-year growth. The increase in export receipts was driven by higher foreign earnings from IT companies, remote professionals, and freelancers providing services to international clients across various markets.

⬆️ Short-term inflation, measured by the Sensitive Price Index (SPI), rose 5.19 percent year-on-year in the week ending Feb 19, the statistics bureau said on Friday, reflecting higher prices of perishable food items at the start of Ramadan.

Pakistan’s overall poverty rate has also climbed sharply in 2024–25 as years of high inflation, weak economic growth, and repeated shocks eroded household purchasing power. Meanwhile, both real household income and consumption have declined since 2018-19.

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